표 4 모형 추정결과
| VAR 모형 | AR 모형 |
| Δhp | Δcp | Δhp | Δcp |
| 상수항 | 0.017 (0.044) | 0.105*** (0.031) | 0.085** (0.040) | 0.080*** (0.030) |
| Δhpt-1 | 0.682*** (0.076) | 0.116** (0.054) | 0.821*** (0.068) | − |
| Δhpt-2 | −0.103 (0.091) | −0.140** (0.064) | −0.063 (0.088) | − |
| Δhpt-3 | −0.130 (0.090) | 0.014 (0.064) | −0.159* (0.088) | − |
| Δhpt-4 | 0.040 (0.090) | −0.051 (0.064) | 0.031 (0.087) | − |
| Δhpt-5 | 0.126 (0.090) | 0.097 (0.064) | 0.145* (0.086) | − |
| Δhpt-6 | 0.076 (0.090) | −0.110* (0.064) | 0.060 (0.085) | − |
| Δhpt-7 | −0.113(0.091) | −0.053 (0.064) | −0.146* (0.085) | − |
| Δhpt-8 | 0.252* (0.078) | 0.005 (0.055) | 0.120* (0.063) | − |
| Δcpt-1 | 0.313*** (0.108) | 0.885*** (0.077) | − | 0.970*** (0.068) |
| Δcpt-2 | −0.031 (0.141) | −0.052 (0.100) | − | −0.110 (0.095) |
| Δcpt-3 | −0.087 (0.140) | −0.034 (0.099) | − | −0.055 (0.095) |
| Δcpt-4 | 0.012 (0.138) | 0.044 (0.098) | − | 0.042 (0.094) |
| Δcpt-5 | 0.140 (0.131) | 0.061 (0.093) | − | 0.107 (0.089) |
| Δcpt-6 | −0.182 (0.131) | 0.023 (0.093) | − | −0.026 (0.089) |
| Δcpt-7 | 0.038 (0.130) | 0.062 (0.092) | − | 0.003 (0.087) |
| Δcpt-8 | −0.104 (0.089) | −0.093 (0.063) | − | −0.084 (0.056) |
| R ¯ 2 | 0.601 | 0.808 | 0.576 | 0.799 |
| DW | 1.937 | 2.049 | 1.963 | 2.041 |